New Poll: Democrats have an Edge Despite Voter Unhappiness

Voters may be giving Democrats an edge despite unhappiness about recent government action. There’s also a year before the next congressional election. And Marquette University Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin has a message for both parties.

“Don’t get carried away,” he says. 

Franklin joined Jane Matenaer and Greg Bach, hosts of Matenaer On Air, to break down the Law School’s latest poll. It was conducted in mid-November during the federal government shutdown. The findings show Democrats hold a five-point advantage among registered voters and a nine-point lead among likely voters.

“That nine-point margin would be exceptionally strong in an actual election,” Franklin explains. “But it’s a snapshot of where the public is right now, not a forecast.”

The poll indicates Democrats are benefiting from higher enthusiasm, with likely Democratic voters turning out at an 8% higher rate than likely Republican voters. That enthusiasm mirrors results in recent off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia, where Democrats outperformed expectations.

But Franklin says it is more complicated than it appears. Democrats are frustrated with their own party with 53% approval of the Democratic leadership in September. Yet even unhappy Democrats are overwhelmingly loyal when asked about their vote. 

“Those dissatisfied Democrats will still vote for Democratic candidates,” Franklin says.

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Listen to the entire discussion, starting at the halfway point, here:

[podcast src="https://civicmedia.us/shows/matenaer-on-air/2025/12/01/poll-numbers-dont-equal-election-victories-hour-1"]

The government shutdown fueled a rare spike in Democratic approval while Republicans’ numbers dipped slightly. Still, most Americans dislike both parties.

“We like our own party pretty well, but we really despise the other party,” Franklin says. “When asked the question of who was to blame for the shutdown, overall, the public was divided. But among partisans, the blame was near-total. 67% of Republicans blamed Democrats, and 72% of Democrats blamed Republicans. Independent results show 75% of  them blamed both sides.”

One issue that had broad agreement was the future of Affordable Care Act subsidies. 70% of Americans want them extended. But those results are at odds with the Trump administration and much of the Republican base. 

“That tension poses a real risk for the GOP heading into an election year, especially as millions begin receiving new insurance bills,” Franklin explains.

Another frustration is mid-decade redistricting. Nearly 70% of respondents — across parties — opposed changing political maps between censuses. Even after California officials responded to a redistricting move in Texas with its own changes, both parties shifted slightly in their views. But overall disapproval remained high. 

“People simply don’t like this idea,” Franklin says.

And he asked everyone to be cautious with so many polls already in the works.. Trusted polls, he shares, typically come from established sources like newspapers, TV networks, or respected academic institutions. Even Fox News, often doubted by Democrats, has a “first-rate” polling team.

“Anybody can say they’re a polling company,” Franklin noted. “But the reputable ones tend to tell the same story, even if their numbers differ a little.”

Franklin also reminded voters that polls aren’t predictions. 

“If you want your party to win,” he says, “go out and win some elections.”